Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 57875.413070 61288.448324 64707.350429 68386.376072 72230.657793 76126.334501 80369.791045
2024-10-27 52023.639687 57205.018822 62548.013389 68460.682490 74811.687851 81419.795792 88806.400442
2024-11-03 48642.970030 55081.269796 61871.197409 69547.652548 77966.812546 86901.193790 97080.619291
2024-11-10 45905.987455 53282.146769 61208.738670 70330.620261 80507.552454 91481.715075 104179.013821
2024-11-17 43436.308833 51531.461499 60376.090283 70713.531916 82418.888069 95216.457467 110219.371649
2024-11-24 41108.244255 49758.135977 59352.930023 70725.819806 83776.498999 98221.730424 115354.951016
2024-12-01 39270.418323 48416.520894 58702.901012 71051.934959 85394.071019 101444.835486 120681.184841
2024-12-08 37481.671212 47024.057325 57897.037615 71107.283916 86622.472209 104164.512112 125390.562286
2024-12-15 36421.665415 46422.427851 57952.810887 72113.033793 88911.230076 108077.295908 131465.903269
2024-12-22 34827.916758 45102.823825 57090.119558 71969.958458 89797.937751 110322.273681 135578.007542
2024-12-29 34047.947175 44724.450770 57312.195271 73086.459762 92152.369649 114275.559610 141697.971046
2025-01-05 33113.612498 44109.671898 57208.747039 73776.533104 93972.604188 117586.473517 147062.988718
2025-01-12 31893.818916 43109.304102 56614.074194 73859.560784 95066.824239 120057.727526 151478.062293
2025-01-19 30606.360746 41977.291605 55816.685776 73658.414764 95789.642451 122070.752524 155346.637859
2025-01-26 30027.533170 41718.263528 56081.875390 74754.648235 98092.555565 125992.783538 161535.064250
2025-02-02 29359.015626 41314.077334 56140.088583 75572.856540 100041.224534 129484.682785 167216.386294
2025-02-09 28543.418776 40686.605160 55887.631737 75976.166249 101457.550779 132319.519306 172102.214032
2025-02-16 27601.367329 39859.044949 55348.992443 75988.738157 102363.195634 134513.946081 176200.698781
2025-02-23 26855.326237 39264.403218 55086.716730 76334.005387 103673.884200 137204.020620 180917.243107
2025-03-02 26027.685613 38531.913964 54619.753709 76392.600522 104603.392248 139410.713288 185035.293887
2025-03-09 25657.785025 38404.087477 54933.688663 77457.558853 106818.299304 143234.836037 191193.451347
2025-03-16 24815.820849 37603.696923 54334.431220 77306.069896 107451.741379 145059.086925 194843.047254
2025-03-23 24539.522202 37572.540612 54751.149731 78488.131602 109812.808153 149079.871565 201284.883301